Category: Uncategorized
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How to talk to an AI
I had my first experience last week of a useful conversation with an AI. I was trying to edit some text but was tired and struggling to find the right words. I gave ChatGPT an example of the style of writing I was aiming for, then asked it to summarise…
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What does statistical significance actually mean?
I’ve been working with research for some time now but have always found it hard to fully understand p-values, confidence intervals and statistical significance. I think this is true of many (most?) people working in social science. I thought that writing a clear explanation in my own words could help.…
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What are odds ratios?
I’ve found it hard to find an intuitive explanation of what an odds ratio is and how it works. So here is my attempt: Odds ratios describe the relationship between two binary variables. They are often used in impact evaluation to show the relationship between exposure to an intervention (i.e.…
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How can we ensure evidence leads to impact?
Stephanie Wardell at the EIF has a great piece summarising the state of the art on supporting evidence use. Anyone working at a What Works Centre or trying to have an impact through research should read it. My notes are below but it’s short enough that you should really read…
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Austin Bradford Hill’s criteria for causal inference
When can we learn from observational data? In 1965 Austin Bradford Hill created a set of criteria that are required for a confident claim that an observed link between an exposure and an outcome is causal. It’s designed for situations where we lack studies with a comparison group. I’m taking…
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The Piecemeal Engineer
Chris Blattman’s new book ‘Why We Fight’ has a nice overview of research on why violence between groups is rare and the reasons why it sometimes does happen. It ends with a nice section about his approach to tackling ‘wicked’ policy problems. He quotes Karl Popper: ‘The piecemeal engineer knows,…
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Nearly everything I’ve ever wanted to know about statistical significance part one: understanding uncertainty
I’ve been working with research for a long time now but have always found it hard to understand p-values, confidence intervals and statistical significance. I thought that writing a clear explanation in my own words could help. I’m posting my attempt here for my own benefit – hopefully it leads…
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Resources for learning about Policing
One of the best things about working in violence prevention is that it’s so interdisciplinary. It involves professionals from policing, education, social care, youth work. I’ve learned a lot about how these different sectors work and am still learning. I found that the House of Commons library is a particularly…
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How big is that number? Using ‘landmark numbers’ to understand the education news
How many laptops?! Here are some numbers from recent education news stories: Schools Week reports that the Government delivered 876,000 laptops to schools since the scheme started in April last year. Fiona Millar, in the Guardian, writes that the most expensive free school, Harris Westminster sixth form, cost almost £50m…
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Three reasons to pay more attention to genetic research
I have to admit I am a bit nervous about this blog. Sure, it’s my first blog – every first-time blogger must get jitters before clicking “publish”. But my nerves are much worse because I am writing about that classic education taboo: genetics. Even worse, I am going to argue…
Peter Henderson 