Peter Henderson

Chris Blattman’s new book ‘Why We Fight’ has a nice overview of research on why violence between groups is rare and the reasons why it sometimes does happen. It ends with a nice section about his approach to tackling ‘wicked’ policy problems. He quotes Karl Popper:

‘The piecemeal engineer knows, like Socrates, how little he knows. He knows that we can only learn from our mistakes. Accordingly, he will make his way, step by step, carefully comparing the results expected with the results achieved, and always on the look-out for the unavoidable unwanted consequences of any reform; and he will avoid undertaking reforms of a complexity and scope which make it impossible for him to disentangle causes and effects, and to know what he is really doing.’

This sounds like an argument for conservatism and limiting ourselves to small steps. But Blattman claims that it’s an argument for marginalism. A conservative moves slowly; a marginalist focuses on results. The steps can be large if you learn about their impact.

Marginalism requires the mindset of the tinkerer: an open mind to many alternatives; try to squeeze out the greatest gains at the least cost; being self-critical; trying to see what works; and being attuned to consequences both intended and unintended.

Why we fight, pg 285